Blader
Straitjacket
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 Offlinevagazzling vajayjays since 1876!!
 
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2008, 04:58:42 AM » |
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I'm thinking blowout
Obama wins Georgia and carries its senatorial candidate Jim Martin (D) across the line.
I haven't run the calculations, but Obama EV in the 360+ range. The other guy gets the residuals.
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2008, 05:26:10 AM » |
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well, if the recounts hold up the slim Obama wins in MO and NC and NEx, everyone underpredicted... 375 is possible  |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Blader
Straitjacket
Karma: 21 Posts: 2075
Offlinevagazzling vajayjays since 1876!!
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2008, 06:26:00 AM » |
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I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +
but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
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OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2008, 06:27:01 AM » |
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I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +
but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect
Was that with or without Georgia? |
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2008, 06:29:10 AM » |
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I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +
but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect
538 was essentially dead on, just a tad too "conservative" in it's methods.. basically a "worst case scenario" evaluator... in that it got every state except Indiana, just allocated some "minor probability" in the MC sampling to occasionally have the 50.5/49.5 states go McCains way on the overall aggregate average |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Blader
Straitjacket
Karma: 21 Posts: 2075
Offlinevagazzling vajayjays since 1876!!
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2008, 07:06:09 AM » |
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I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +
but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect
Was that with or without Georgia? I really thought my homeies would come through for Moses  Looks like the bitters were out in force. I'm not sure it is over. I think the networks called it way too soon. There is a slight possibility we still have some out there...and that Chambliss will be forced into a runoff against his D challenger. GA could still end up giving the senate #60, which is nice |
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MFAWG
Rich Corinthian Leather Jacket
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2008, 07:09:40 AM » |
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We've still got races pending here, but that's just because we're both corrupt AND inept. But we manage to hide it with big sunglasses and a little skin toner....
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity at any price, peace at any price, safety first instead of duty first, the love of soft living and the get rich quick theory of life. -- Teddy Roosevelt
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2008, 07:12:44 AM » |
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538 speculates GA might not have all early voting counted yet
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2008, 07:20:36 AM » |
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353-185
52.4-46.1
obviously off some on the EC , but... dammmmn on the %  52.34-46.36 |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2008, 07:28:19 AM » |
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353-185
52.4-46.1
obviously off some on the EC , but... dammmmn on the % 52.34-46.36 LOL onecompetitvesumbitch  |
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gleek
Flak Jacket
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OfflineE chu ta!
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2008, 06:50:14 PM » |
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The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174
Ahem |
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Woman, open the door, don't let it sting. I wanna breathe that fire again.
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2008, 06:52:06 PM » |
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The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174
Ahem you missed the 1 NE ev he will get . |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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gleek
Flak Jacket
Karma: 107 Posts: 9511
OfflineE chu ta!
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Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2008, 06:58:54 PM » |
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The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174
Ahem you missed the 1 NE ev he will get . Stupid Bugeaters! Just 'em all to McCain! |
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Woman, open the door, don't let it sting. I wanna breathe that fire again.
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