U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]

[Aske]

so, 1st of all, I'll go buy the prize right now while I can still afford it    oh wait, it can't be a Golf Galaxy gift card since we don't have them here anymore.  hmmm, maybe we can pick something else out-   


other than that small issue,  here's the deal let's at least try to laugh a bit to distract ourselves from how comically bad the $ and 'konomee situation is right now.


simply post what you think these things will cost/value (in U$D) at the last day of 2008.


Gasoline (1 gallon RBOB future delivery )
Oil (1 Barrel WTI future delivery )
Euro (1 currency unit )
DJIA (index value)
Nasdaq (index value)
Gold (1 troy oz)
Platinum (1 troy oz)
Copper (1 pound)
Corn (1 future bushel)
Wheat (1 KCB future bushel)
30 Year Mortgage Interest rate





to measure your score , we will simply calculate the % error per item .  whoever has the lowest average % error will win.
Example, you say Gasoline will be $1.00.  it is $1.02   you have a 2% error for that item.  you say oil will be $10, oil is $11, you have a 10% error.  If it ended there, your average error is 6%   




entries due Noon EST of  March 31st, 2008

[stroh]

Cool.  I'm in.

(Gas is National Average?  Reported by?)

[Aske]

Cool.  I'm in.

(Gas is National Average?  Reported by?)

stroh,  everything except platinum will be priced off data from bloomberg.com

I'll throw in one more component while we're at it: the average 30 year mortgage interest rate.


if anyone has a real preference for which platinum product we use, i'm open to suggestion- i was just going to take it off http://www.metalprices.com/ for the COMEX

[gleek]

Why don't you list the current prices (e.g. Friday's closing prices) for reference? Or at least provide links to the sites that you'll use for the price quotes to determine the winner. Also, for the commodities, are the prices going to be for contracts that expire in December 2008?

[Aske]

Why don't you list the current prices (e.g. Friday's closing prices) for reference? Or at least provide links to the sites that you'll use for the price quotes to determine the winner. Also, for the commodities, are the prices going to be for contracts that expire in December 2008?

see my newest post,  everything futures related will be main option trading for delivery in 2009 as of close of business on 12/31/2008  as reported for featured products as easily viewed comprehensively on bloomberg (excluding platinum, which they don't list)


commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/...commodities/cfutures.html

equity indices
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei.html

currencies
http://www.bloomberg.com/...rkets/currencies/fxc.html

rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

[stroh]

Why do you hate frozen orange juice concentrate?

[gleek]

Clarence.Beeks.surrenders

[MFAWG]

I just got done listening to the POTUS. Everythings fine, and I have been assured by Limbaugh that even if it's not, it's all The Libruls fault.

[Uisce Beatha]

That's very complicated stuff.  I won't do well with that. 

I do feel comfortable predicting a 2008 comeback for Blind Melon though.

[1puttpar]

That's very complicated stuff.  I won't do well with that. 

I do feel comfortable predicting a 2008 comeback for Blind Melon though.

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