If you really only rent 2x a month, don't rewatch what you own, etc... I'd seriously consider just using D* PPV in HD.
The <$200 BD players will certainly give you better PQ/AQ, but pricewise I don't know if you're getting your $ worth. I'd consider the BD buyin @ $200 if you were watching 4+ movies a month to be worth your while. Also, your only shot of getting BD rentals for certain* of any movie you want to watch would be Netflix right now. The hd-dvd bargains can be appealing too as long as you accept them for what they are.
That's the way I'm leaning. I'm sure a few years from now with the toddler grown a little we will watch more movies and want blu ray. We have recently used netflix and it didn't work great for us. We'd have a movie at our house for weeks. Then we can't get instant gratification when we really want to watch one. I'm betting we will use the Dtv PPV HD most often. I know when the HD dvr comes we will watch Dark Knight on PPV that night. But I do need a new DVD player for sure. I could get an Oppo 980 but I still don't get why a dvd player needs to upscale my 480i DVD when the $1000 tv can do that. And buying a cheaper dvd player is the same price as an HD DVD player which also does a good job of "upscaling" if that is even possible. Might as well have a few HD DVD movies I can watch on HD DVD until I get a blu ray in a few years. I don't see buying an HD DVD player much different than buying a SD DVD player. And I have to get something to play DVDs so what the hell.