This JUST happened. Options?

I'll set the stage here, although most of these details aren't at all relevant to the rules questions, but I know how quiet this section is so I'm sure no one will mind as I build the suspense.

I played in my first tournament of the season this morning. Sadly, I have little to say about my game other than I'm not ready for prime time. The tournament was a shotgun start with ours and one other foursome starting on #14 and finishing on #13.

#13 is a shortish (145 yard) par three with a pond fronting the green. The group ahead of us had just finished the hole, and their round, and had walked off the green. They appeared to be talking, perhaps exchanging scorecards, a few paces off the back of this rather deep green. One of my fellow competitors (Frank) had the tee and took his shot.

Frank probably shouldn't have hit with them still so close to the back of the green, but they didn't seem to be showing any signs of moving, and they had to be at least 30-40 yards past the flag, which was positioned in the front of the green. I don't know how it's been where you guys live, but it has been windy as hell here the last two days. Yesterday the gusts where up to around 50mph, and while today was calmer I'd guess we had winds of 10-35mph gusting all day.

So Frank hits his shot and it's pulled a bit but looks to be set to fall around flag high, but then it carries, and carries some more, and carries some more. He lets out a "Fore!" followed by a "FOORRREE!!!" but there was no reaction. Perhaps the wind and post round conversation consumed their ears, the din of which was shattered by the THUD of the ball hitting one of the guys squarely in the head... HARD. He stumbles and then drops, and so do our stomachs.

It's a sickening feeling to see this happen, I have to say. I've never seen anyone get hit like this before and it was scary. Frank jumped in a cart and went over to see if he was ok. He seemed to be doing alright, and after about five minutes he and his foursome drove back to the clubhouse on the other side of the course and Frank returned to the tee. The three of us had been waiting to hit while he was gone. No one had the guts to try and hit while that poor bastard was still lying on the ground back there.

So the three of us hit our shots and the four of us go back to the green. Frank goes to play his ball which is sitting there at the scene of the crime, and then he realizes the ball isn't his. His Callaway is gone and a shiny new Srixon sits in its place. Now, we all know where we expected Frank's ball to be. We saw it bounce off the guy's head, off a cart, and we all thought it fell straight down after hitting the cart. What seems to have happened was that during the carnage someone dropped their ball, and afterwards picked up Frank's ball. It's the only explanation that makes sense, but we can't ask them because they're GONE. They're not on the next tee; they're back in the clubhouse 1000 yards away.

So Frank goes back to the tee, dumps his 3rd in a bunker and finishes with a six. I'm wondering if we could apply rule 18-1? The rule states that it must be known (it isn't known, we didn't see it) or virtually certain that an outside agency moved the ball. I'm not sure what the standard for virtually certain is, but I think it lies on the stricter side of "more likely than not" or "pretty sure", which is how we all felt about it. I don't think any of us followed the ball once it hit the guy. We all thought it should be laying there, but no one could say that they saw it fall down.

However, we could be certain if, when we get back to the clubhouse, one of them can produce Frank's ball (the make and model of which were known to us, and his mark was distinct). So I was also wondering if Frank could have played both balls on the last hole. Drop one and proceed under 18-1, and play the other ball under stroke and distance. If we are unable to clear up the issue to the threshold of virtual certainty when we get back to the clubhouse, then he will score the 6 on the hole. But if they had the ball, that's good enough for me as his marker and I would be virtually certain that someone picked up his ball in the commotion. 

It was a Tour model Callaway, so they're around $45/doz. It was a Srixon Soft Feel, which are around $19.99. I see where you're going with this. They were sending Frank a message, "Maybe you should start using Soft Feel balls, a$shole."

Good thinking.

I have never hit a career 3 wood.