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So who do you believe is correct?

 
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gleek
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So who do you believe is correct?
« on: March 03, 2008, 07:57:26 AM »
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birdymaker
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Re: So who do you believe is correct?
« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2008, 07:59:28 AM »
lets see i'll go with the first guy instead of this guy.  Devil

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Re: So who do you believe is correct?
« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2008, 08:03:52 AM »
well i already posted my thoughts that if gdp growth rate is + but smaller than the inflation rate  you're technically receding based on a real* $ analysis, soooo   ...


oh, back on point.  self made investment genius or silver spoon chimp who couldn't even buy an ALCS win.     tough call.

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hobbit
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Re: So who do you believe is correct?
« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2008, 08:41:30 AM »
Well, we know the second guy is full of it.

But, wft is a 'common sense recession' anyway?  It looks like we may have one so lets call it now?  Dewey Wins!  Wink


An aside on his 'stocks are not cheap' comment....

If we're in a 'recession' (now that the term has been redefined  Roll Eyes ), stocks would be cheap (compared to historical and future performance).  Just because they may not have hit bottom yet does not mean they're not cheap.  How can he have it both ways?  Its a 'recession', but stocks are not cheap?  Hmmmm

So why does he say these things.... because he's better at timing the market than most.  Anything less than the rock bottom price and he says its not cheap.  But it would be cheap - whether you bought at $30 or $28 may not make a big difference to you when its back up to $60 - it was still a good buy (cheap).  We likely have not hit bottom yet, we may well go into a recession - but if you think you can 'time the bottom' like Buffet, you'll be too late.  And thats the only thing his 'stocks are not cheap' comment pertains to - his (supernatural/genius/you'll never have it) timing of the bottom.
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gleek
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Re: So who do you believe is correct?
« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2008, 08:50:29 AM »
Quote from: hobbit on March 03, 2008, 08:41:30 AM
If we're in a 'recession' (now that the term has been redefined  Roll Eyes ), stocks would be cheap (compared to historical and future performance).  Just because they may not have hit bottom yet does not mean they're not cheap.  How can he have it both ways?  Its a 'recession', but stocks are not cheap?  Hmmmm

Why can't we be in a recession and still have stocks being overvalued?
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Re: So who do you believe is correct?
« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2008, 08:51:47 AM »
Quote from: gleek on March 03, 2008, 08:50:29 AM
Quote from: hobbit on March 03, 2008, 08:41:30 AM
If we're in a 'recession' (now that the term has been redefined  Roll Eyes ), stocks would be cheap (compared to historical and future performance).  Just because they may not have hit bottom yet does not mean they're not cheap.  How can he have it both ways?  Its a 'recession', but stocks are not cheap?  Hmmmm

Why can't we be in a recession and still have stocks being overvalued?

if those stocks return to 'value'  it's gonna me the great depression look like a hiccup.
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hobbit
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Re: So who do you believe is correct?
« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2008, 11:40:37 AM »
Quote from: gleek on March 03, 2008, 08:50:29 AM
Quote from: hobbit on March 03, 2008, 08:41:30 AM
If we're in a 'recession' (now that the term has been redefined  Roll Eyes ), stocks would be cheap (compared to historical and future performance).  Just because they may not have hit bottom yet does not mean they're not cheap.  How can he have it both ways?  Its a 'recession', but stocks are not cheap?  Hmmmm

Why can't we be in a recession and still have stocks being overvalued?

Well perhaps its semantics, but stocks that may be considered overvalued are still 'cheap' when compared to past and future performance.

Again, in my example above - a stock selling at $30 may be considered overvalued by Buffet, who seeks to buy at $28.  But if you wait for Buffet to make his move and 'time' the market, you'll likely be paying $32 by then.  Overvalued or not, $30 on a stock that may well return to $50 or more in the near term is buying 'cheap'.

Obviously there are some stocks that may not recover, but thats a minority strawman.
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