I wonder if a speculation bubble will burst at some point. Technology companies > Financial institutions > commodities
Of course there are real fundamental forces raising prices but speculation is playing an important role. But the spike in oil prices beginning on 03 coincides with the doubling of oil contracts sold on the NYMEX.
You have stocks now undervalued, the dollar (hopefully) undervalued all because of oil prices. It seems when everyone and their dog are jumping on a bandwagon it soons crashes. I realize we'll never see less than $2.00 gas again but you have to wonder. The fickle masses are so transparent and obvious the possibility exists IMO. A few things happen to lower prices some and the speculators jump ship.
let's say that your bubble actually happens (which i don't think will happen!!!, because i think it is more* fundamental than speculative, although both are contributing) ... oil co's , exporting nations, and speculators have all seen in the last months that oil is completely inelastic to at least $125/bbl. cut supplies to push the price back up , enjoy increased profit margin, and reap rewards via increased investment / rising stock prices. repeat the speculative cycle 2-3 more times over the next 20 years as conventional production enters decline